Estimates of major non-communicable disease risk factors for India, 2010 & 2015: A summary of evidence

Background & objectives: The National Monitoring Framework for the prevention and control of NCDs in India has set targets for reduction of risk factors relative to the measure recorded in 2010. Estimates for 2010 and 2015 were established using meta-analyses in the absence of a national risk factor survey till 2017. Methods: We searched national survey reports and also articles published in English from India between 2008 and 2017 in PubMed, Google Scholar and Cochrane review databases for specific risk factors among 18-69 yr Indians. Quality of studies was evaluated using Joanna-Briggs tool, but all studies were included in analyses. Estimates for each of the eight strata by age, gender and place of residence, respectively, were generated. MetaXL was used to calculate the pooled estimate for 2010 and 2015 using a random effects model. Strata-specific estimates were combined to arrive at national estimate using population weight of each stratum. The credibility of the estimates was determined using four parameters - average Briggs score; representativeness of the contributing studies and precision and stability of the estimates. Results: The estimates [95% confidence interval (CI)] for 2010 for different risk factors were as follows: current alcohol use, 15.7 per cent (13.2-18.2); current tobacco use, 27 per cent (21.4-32.6); household solid fuel use, 61.5 per cent (50.2-72.5); physical inactivity, 44.2 per cent (37.8-50.6); obesity, seven per cent (3.8-10.2) and raised blood pressure, 20.2 per cent (18.4-22.1). In 2015, compared to 2010, tobacco use showed a relative decline of 18 per cent, household solid fuel use of nine per cent and physical inactivity of 15 per cent. The estimates were stable for alcohol use, raised blood pressure and obesity between 2010 and 2015. All estimates varied between moderate and high degrees of credibility. Interpretation & conclusions: The estimates are consistent with other available estimates and with current national-level initiatives focused on tobacco control and improving access to clean fuel. These estimates can be used to monitor progress on non-communicable disease risk factor targets for India

Exploratory analysis of the suitability of data from the civil registration system for estimating excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Faridabad district of India

Background & objectives: Due to shortcomings in death registration and medical certification, the excess death approach is recommended for COVID-19 mortality burden estimation. In this study the data from the civil registration system (CRS) from one district in India was explored for its suitability in the estimation of excess deaths, both directly and indirectly attributable to COVID-19. Methods: All deaths registered on the CRS portal at the selected registrar’s office of Faridabad district in Haryana between January 2016 and September 2021 were included. The deaths registered in 2020 and 2021 were compared to previous years (2016-2019), and excess mortality in both years was estimated by gender and age groups as the difference between the registered deaths and historical average month wise during 2016-2019 using three approaches – mean and 95 per cent confidence interval, FORECAST.ETS function in Microsoft Excel and linear regression. To assess the completeness of registration in the district, 150 deaths were sampled from crematoria and graveyards during 2020 and checked for registration in the CRS portal. Agreement in the cause of death (CoD) in CRS with the International Classification of Diseases-10 codes assigned for a subset of 585 deaths after verbal autopsy was calculated. Results: A total of 7017 deaths were registered in 2020, whereas 6792 deaths were registered till 30 September 2021 which represent a 9 and 44 per cent increase, respectively, from the historical average for that period. The highest increase was seen in the age group >60 yr (19% in 2020 and 56% in 2021). All deaths identified in crematoria and graveyards in 2020 had been registered. Observed peaks of all-cause excess deaths corresponded temporally and in magnitude to infection surges in the district. All three approaches gave overlapping estimates of the ratio of excess mortality to reported COVID-19 deaths of 1.8-4 in 2020 and 10.9-13.9 in 2021. There was poor agreement (?<0.4) between CoD in CRS and that assigned after physician review for most causes, except tuberculosis and injuries. Interpretation & conclusions: CRS data, despite the limitations, appeared to be appropriate for all-cause excess mortality estimation by age and sex but not by cause. There was an increase in death registration in 2020 and 2021 in the district.

Performance of equations for estimation of 24-hour urinary sodium from morning fasting urine samples in a multisite study in India

BACKGROUND Dietary salt intake is an important modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. Estimation of 24-hour salt intake using morning urine samples needs to be validated in the Indian context. We examined the performance of INTERSALT, Tanaka and Kawasaki equations for the estimation of 24-hour urinary sodium from morning fasting urine (MFU) samples. METHODS We enrolled 486 adults aged 18–69 years from four regions of India with equal rural/urban and sex representation to provide 24-hour urine samples. The next day, a MFU sample was obtained. Based on the volume and sodium content of the 24-hour urine sample, 24-hour sodium excretion (reference method) was calculated. Sodium levels in the MFU samples were measured along with other parameters required, and the above equations were used to estimate 24-hour urinary sodium levels. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to assess the degree of agreement between the estimates from the reference method and the three equations. Bland–Altman (BA) plots were used to identify systematic bias and limits of agreement. A difference of 1 g of salt (0.39 g of sodium) between the mean salt intake by 24-hour urine and as estimated by equations was considered acceptable. RESULTS A total of 346 participants provided both the samples. The mean (SD) daily salt intake estimated by the 24-hour urine sample method was 9.9 (5.8) g. ICC was low for all the three equations: highest for Kawasaki (0.16; 95% CI 0.05–0.26) and least for Tanaka (0.12; 0.02–0.22). Only Tanaka equation provided estimates within 1 g of measured 24-hour salt intake (–0.36 g). BA plots showed that as the mean values increased, all the three equations provided lower estimates of salt intake. CONCLUSION Tanaka equation provided acceptable values of 24-hour salt intake at the population level. However, poor performance of all the equations highlights the need to understand the reasons and develop better methods for the measurement of sodium intake at the population level.

Adherence to medications among patients with diabetes mellitus (Type 2) at ballabgarh health and demographic surveillance system: A community based study

Burden of diabetes mellitus in India is on rise. Adherence to treatment is essential to diabetes control and prevention of complications. Objectives: To study the adherence to treatment of diabetes mellitus and its determinants among rural population Material and methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in a rural community of north India. From a list of all self-reported diabetics (aged ≥18 years), 400 were randomly selected. Information about drug prescription and intake, socio-demographic factors, health seeking behaviors and disease status were obtained from the participants. Height, weight and blood pressure were recorded. Blood samples were collected to measure HbAlc levels Results: Out of 371 self-reported diabetic patients, 113 (30.4%) did not take any medication since last one month of the interview. Amongst 258 patients, who were taking treatment, 146 (39.4, 95%CI: 34.5-44.4) were found to have 100% drug adherence rate. Tobacco (p=0.03) and alcohol (p=0.04) use were significantly associated with drug adherence on bi variate analysis. Drug adherence rate was higher in group with HbA1c level more than 6.4gm%. Conclusion: A high proportion of diabetic patients were not adhering to the treatment prescribed to them by their consulting doctors. There is urgent need for awareness generation about diabetes treatment adherence and developing adherence monitoring mechanisms at community level.

Prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in an adult population in a rural community of Haryana, India.

Background: Though nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasingly becoming prevalent in the Indian population, knowledge regarding the burden and risk factors of NAFLD is limited, more so from rural areas. This study was thus conducted to estimate the prevalence of NAFLD among adults in a rural community of Haryana, India and to measure the association of diet, physical activity, and other selected risk factors with NAFLD. Materials and Methods: The present study was conducted in a rural community of Haryana, India among resident adults ≥35 years of age. Eight out of 28 villages were selected by probability proportion to size sampling. The number of eligible and consenting participants randomly selected from each village was 27. Out of 216 participants thus recruited, 184 participants reported for undergoing ultrasonography (USG) of the liver, anthropometry, blood pressure recording, and blood sample collection. Finally, 176 participants were analyzed. Results: Prevalence of NAFLD was 30.7%. There was no significant difference in the calorie intake and average total physical activity between participants with and without NAFLD. On multivariate analysis, hypertension [adjusted odds ratio (OR): 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-5.0, P 0.03] and an increased waist circumference (adjusted OR: 4.9, 95% CI: 1.5-7.0, P < 0.001) were independently associated with NAFLD. A normal high-density lipoprotein (HDL) level was protective against NAFLD (adjusted OR: 0.4, 95% CI: 0.2-0.8, P 0.001). Conclusions: The high prevalence of NAFLD is already a public health problem, even in the rural parts of India. Urgent public health interventions are required to prevent its development by controlling the cardiometabolic risk factors associated with it.

Lessons for addressing noncommunicable diseases within a primary health-care system from the Ballabgarh project, India.

Background: Most patients with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) can be managed appropriately at the primary care level, using a simplified standard protocol supported by low-cost drugs. The primary care response to common NCDs is often unstructured and inadequate in low- and middle-income countries. This study assessed the feasibility of integration of NCD prevention and control within the primary health-care system of India. Methods: This study was done among 12 subcentres, 2 primary health centres (PHCs) and one subdistrict hospital in a block in north India. All 28 multipurpose health workers of these subcentres underwent 3-day training for delivering the package of NCD interventions as a part of their routine functioning. A time–motion study was conducted before and after this, to assess the workload on a sample of the workers with and without the NCD work. Screening for risk assessment was done at domiciliary level as well as at health-facility level (opportunistic screening), and the cost was estimated based on standard costing procedures. Individuals who screened positive were investigated with electrocardiography and fasting blood sugar. PHCs were strengthened with provision of essential medicines and technologies. Results: After training, 6% of the time of workers (n = 7) was spent in the NCDrelated activities, and introduction of NCD activities did not impact the coverage of other major national health programmes. Loss during referral of “at-risk” subjects (37.5% from home to subcentre and 33% from subcentre to PHC) resulted in screening efficiency being lowest at domiciliary level (1.3 cases of NCDs identified per 1000 screened). In comparison to domiciliary screening (`21 830.6; US$ 363.8 per case identified), opportunistic screening at subdistrict level (`794.6; US$ 13.2) was 27.5 times and opportunistic screening at PHC (`1457.5; US$ 24.3) was 15.0 times lower. There was significant utilization of NCD services provided at PHCs, including counselling. Conclusion: Opportunistic screening appears to be feasible and a cost-effective strategy for risk screening. It is possible to integrate NCD prevention and control into primary health care in India.

Cost of Ambulatory Care by Mobile Health Clinic Run by a Medical College in India for the Year 2008-09.

Background: The feasibility of using mobile health clinics (MHCs) to deliver health services in urban poor areas has to be explored as the health needs of the residents are not sufficiently addressed by the existing primary health care delivery system in India. Objective: To estimate the cost of providing primary health care services and the out of pocket expenditure (OOPE) incurred, while utilizing these services provided through the MHC based Urban Health Program of a Medical College in North India for the year 2008-2009. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study to estimate OOPE was conducted among 330 subjects selected from patients attending the mobile health care facility. For estimation of provider cost, 5 steps process involving identification of cost centres, measurement of inputs, valuing of inputs, assigning of inputs to cost centers, and estimation of unit cost were carried out. Results: Total annual cost of providing services under Urban Health Program in the year 2008-2009 was Rs. 7,691,943 Unit cost of providing outpatient curative care, antenatal care, and immunization were Rs. 107.74/visit, Rs. 388/visit and Rs. 66.14 per immunization, respectively. The mean OOPE incurred was Rs. 29.50/visit, while utilizing outpatient curative services and Rs. 88.70/visit for antenatal services. Conclusion: The MHC can be considered as a viable option to provide services to urban poor.

A Micro-costing Model of Neonatal Intensive Care from a Tertiary Indian Unit: Feasibility and Implications for Insurance.

Objective: To calculate and compare costs of neonatal intensive care by micro-costing and gross-costing methods. Methods: The costs of resources of a tertiary care neonatal intensive care unit were estimated by the two methods to arrive at specific costs per diagnosis related categories for 33 neonates followed-up prospectively. Results: Grosscosting as compared to micro-costing resulted in higher cost per bed (Rs 6315 vs. Rs 4969) and wide variations of costs (-34.8% to +13.4%). Intensity of interventions, relative stay in neonatal intensive care unit compared to the step-down nursery, and total length of hospital admission accounted for these variations. Conclusions: Estimates based on micro-costing arrived in this study may be used as a starting point in developing assumptions for insurance models covering neonatal intensive care.

Sex-specific Trends in Under-five Mortality in Rural Ballabgarh.

Objectives: To assess sex-specific differentials in child survival from 1992-2011. Methods: We analyzed data from the electronic database of Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) site in Ballabgarh in North India. Results: Sex ratio at birth was adverse for girls throughout the study period (821 to 866 girls per 1,000 boys) and was lowest in the period 2004-2006 at 821 girls per 1,000 boys. Overall, under-five mortality rates during the period 1992-2011 remained stagnant due to increasing neonatal mortality rate (9.2 to 27.7 P< 0.001). Mortality rates among girls were consistently and significantly higher than boys during the post-neonatal period (160% to 200% higher) as well as in childhood (160% to 230% higher). Conclusions: Strategies to address the neonatal mortality and gender differences are required for further reductions in child mortality in India.

Clinical differences between influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 & influenza B infections identified through active community surveillance in north India.

Background & objectives: Most studies on the clinical presentation with influenza viruses have been conducted in outpatient or inpatient medical facilities with only a few studies in community settings. Clinical differences between influenza A (H1N1) pdm 09 and influenza B virus infections have importance for community-based public health surveillance. An active community surveillance at the time of emergence of pandemic influenza provided us with an opportunity to compare the clinical features among patients infected with influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 virus and those with influenza B virus co-circulating in an active community-based weekly surveillance in three villages in Faridabad, Haryana, north India. Methods: Active surveillance for febrile acute respiratory infection (FARI) was carried out in a rural community (n=16,182) in the context of an inactivated trivalent influenza vaccine trial (among children <11 yr). Individuals with FARI were assessed clinically by nurses and respiratory samples collected and tested for influenza viruses by real time RT-PCR from November 2009 to August 2010. Clinical symptoms of patients with influenza A (H1N1) pdm 09 and influenza B infection were compared. Results: Of the 4796 samples tested, 822 (17%) were positive for influenza virus. Of these, 443 (54%) were influenza A (H1N1) pdm09, 373 (45%) were influenza B and six were other subtypes/mixed infections. The mean age was lower for patients with influenza B (16.4 yr) than influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 infection (18.7 yr; P=0.04). Among children aged 5-18 yr, chills/rigours (OR 4.0; CI 2.2, 7.4), sore throat (OR 6.8; CI 2.3, 27.3) and headache (OR2.0; CI 1.3, 3.3) were more common in influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 infection than in influenza B cases. Chills/rigours (OR 2.4; CI 1.4, 4.0) and headache (OR 1.7; CI 1.0, 2.7) were associated with influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 infection in those >18 yr. No significant differences were seen in children <5 yr. Conclusion: Our findings show that the differences in the clinical presentation of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B infections are not likely to be of clinical or public health significance.

Causes of death in rural adult population of North India (2002-2007), using verbal autopsy tool.

Background: With the on-going epidemiological transition, information on the pattern of mortality is important for health planning. Verbal autopsy (VA) is an established tool to ascertain the cause of death in areas where routine registration systems are incomplete or inaccurate. We estimated cause-specific mortality rates in rural adult population of 28 villages of Ballabgarh in North India using VA. Materials and Methods: During 2002-2007, trained multi-purpose health workers conducted 2294 VA interviews and underlying cause of death was coded by physicians. Proportional mortality (%) was calculated by dividing the number of deaths attributed to a specific cause by the total number of deaths for which a VA was carried out. Findings: 61% of deaths occurred among males and 59% occurred among those aged ≥60 years. The leading causes of death were diseases of the respiratory system (18.7%) and the circulatory system (18.1%). Infectious causes and injuries and other external causes, each accounted for around 15% of total deaths followed by neoplasms (6.8%) and diseases of the digestive system (4%). Among those 45 years of age, more than half of deaths were attributed to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) alone. Accidents and injuries were responsible for one-fourth of deaths in 15-30 years age group. Conclusion: NCDs and injuries are emerging as major causes of death in this region thereby posing newer challenges to public health system.

Suicide an Emerging Public Health Problem: Evidence from Rural Haryana, India.

Analysis of annual mortality data for year 2002-2009 of twenty eight villages in Ballabgarh block of rural Haryana was carried out to calculate suicide rates per 100,000 population. In addition, informal discussions were carried out amongst health providers to understand their perceptions regarding suicides. In a period of 8 years, out of total 4552 deaths, 163 (3.5%) deaths were attributed to suicides giving a suicide rate of 24.4/100,000 population (95% CI 24.1- 24.7). Mean years of productive life lost for males and females were estimated to be 44.4 (SD 1.1) years and 39.9 (SD 1.4) years respectively. Poisoning (41.1%) was the most common mode of suicide followed by hanging (36.8%) and burns (14.7%). Health workers also perceived suicide as major problem in the community and marital confl ict was identifi ed as major cause for suicides. There is need to address the complex issue of suicide by public- health approach at the community level.

Diagnostic potential of 16 kDa (HspX, α-crystalline) antigen for serodiagnosis of tuberculosis.

Background & objectives: Tuberculosis (TB) is a public health problem worldwide. Rapid and accurate diagnosis of tuberculosis is crucial to facilitate early treatment of infectious cases and to reduce its spread. The present study was aimed to evaluation of 16 kDa antigen as a serodiagnostic tool in pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis patients in an effort to improve diagnostic algorithm for tuberculosis. Methods: In this study, 200 serum samples were collected from smear positive and culture confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis patients, 30 tubercular pleural effusions and 21 tubercular meningitis (TBM) patients. Serum samples from 36 healthy, age matched controls (hospital staff), along with 60 patients with non-tubercular respiratory diseases were also collected and evaluated. Humoral response (both IgG and IgA) was looked for 16 kDa antigen using indirect ELISA. Results: Sensitivity of detection in various categories of pulmonary TB patients ranged between 73.8 and 81.2 per cent. While in the extra-pulmonary TB samples the sensitivity was 42.8 per cent (TBM) and 63.3 per cent (tubercular pleural effusion). The test specificity in both the groups was high (94.7%). All of the non-disease controls were negative. Among non-tubercular disease controls, five patients gave a positive humoral response against 16 kDa. Interpretation & conclusions: Serodiagnostic tests for TB have always had drawbacks of suboptimal sensitivity and specificity. The antigen used in this study gave encouraging results in pulmonary TB only, while in extra-pulmonary TB (tubercular meningitis and tubercular pleural effusion), this has shown a limited role in terms of sensitivity. Further work is required to validate its role in serodiagnosis of TB especially extra-pulmonary TB.

Performance of cause-specific childhood mortality surveillance by health workers using a short verbal autopsy tool.

Background: The routine use of verbal autopsy in health-care delivery settings has been limited. Hence, the performance of neonatal and postneonatal verbal autopsy (VA) tools developed at the Comprehensive Rural Health Services Project (CRHSP), Ballabgarh (India), were assessed. Methods: Short VA tools developed by CRHSP were filled by health workers during their routine house visits while standard VA tools of the International Network of Field Sites with continuous Demographic Evaluation (INDEPTH) were filled by trained research workers for all 143 under-fivechildren deaths that occurred in 2008. The level of agreement in the cause of death assigned by the two VA tools was assessed by kappa and by comparison of the cause-specific mortality fractions. Results: Among 65 neonatal deaths, the cause specific mortality fraction (CSMF) was 43.1% and 40% for low birthweight, 15.4% and 26.2% for birth asphyxia, and 7.7% and 10.8% for pneumonia by INDEPTH and CRHSP VA tools respectively. In 78 deaths among 29-days to <5-year olds, the CSMF was 29.4% and 26.9% for diarrhoea, and 16.6% each for pneumonia using the INDEPTH and CRHSP VA tools respectively. Kappa for most causes of death was more than 0.8, except for birth asphyxia, which had a kappa of 0.678. Conclusions: Short VA tools have a satisfactory performance in field settings, which can be used routinely by health workers for filling the gaps in the cause-of-death information in places where medical certification of cause of death is deficient.

Who killed Clinical Medicine? An allegorical murder mystery.

Hercule Poirot, the legendary detective, now retired, spent his time growing vegetable marrows. It was a typical day and Poirot was sipping his tisane, reading the day’s paper. He glanced at the Obituaries column (as was his practice now with ripening age).

ASHA’s Involvement in Newborn Care: A Feasibility Study.

We assessed the feasibility of involvement of Accredited Social Health Activist (ASHA) in newborn care. All the ASHAs (n = 33) of PHC Dayalpur, Faridabad district of Haryana were trained for one day which was followed by two refresher trainings. The mean (SD) knowledge score (out of 11) of ASHAs were 6.45 (2.44), 6.50 (2.01), 7.45 (1.36) and 7.15 (1.27) at pre-training, immediately after training, and after three and six months, respectively. Four fifth (83%) of the newborns born at home were weighed within 3 days of birth. About half (44%) of ASHAs weighed the neonates within ±250 grams of the weight recorded by the author. We conclude that ASHAs could be involved in providing care for newborn. However, such efforts should ensure a stronger focus on skill development and practical experience.

Epidemiology to public health intervention for preventing cardiovascular diseases: The role of translational research.

Despite significant progress in medical research, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) continue to be the largest contributors of morbidity and mortality both in developed and developing countries. The status of public health interventions related to CVDs prevention was reviewed to identify actions that are required to bridge the existing gap between the evidence and the policy. We used a framework comprising two steps - “bench to bedside” and from “bedside to community” to evaluate translational research. Available literature was reviewed to document the current status of CVD prevention and control at national level in India. Case studies of risk factor surveillance, tobacco control and blood pressure measurement were used to understand different aspects of translational research. National level initiatives in non-communicable diseases surveillance, prevention and control are a recent phenomena in India. The delay in translation of research to policy has occurred primarily at the second level, i.e., from ‘bedside to community’. The possible reasons for this were: inappropriate perception of the problem by policy makers and programme managers, lack of global public health guidelines and tools, and inadequate nationally relevant research related to operationalization and cost of public health interventions. Public health fraternity, both nationally and internationally, needs to establish institutional mechanisms to strengthen human resource capacity to initiate and monitor the process of translational research in India. Larger public interest demands that focus should shift to overcoming the barriers at community level translation. Only this will ensure that the extraordinary scientific advances of this century are rapidly translated for the benefit of more than one billion Indians.